2014 Season Preview ~ Part 1: From McMurray To Mears
1/09/2014
Race Fans Forever Staff
Welcome Race Fans to another year of our favorite thing! The Off-season!
No?
Okay…then welcome back to January, and that means pre-season testing and gearing up for another ten month run to determine a Champion. As Race Fans Forever is less than a year old at this time, (we have a birthday coming soon) this is a first for us. We’ve gotten PattyKay Lilley, Kevin Abraham, Alabama Fitz, Brian Marchetti, and Jim Fitzgerald (all of our usual Fast Forward contributors) all together to do a season preview which will be partially revealed each week, ten to twelve drivers at a time. We’ll take a look at their 2013 campaign and let you know what changes were made between last season and this one, and also give you our take on what the drivers and teams can expect in terms of on track success in 2014, such as whether they will win races, or even make the Chase. We might even tell you who is going to win the Championship, so call Vegas and lay down that bet now before the rush. (This disclaimer hereby removes all responsibility of the owner, management, and staff of Race Fans Forever to provide any actual correct selections at any point during these preview columns, or in general throughout the season, unless at any point the Championship has already been decided, and then in that case, we will be happy to provide an accurate prognostication.) So, sit back, grab a hot cocoa and read on!
No. 1- Jamie McMurray
(PattyKay Lilley)
After finishing a respectable 15th in the 2013 driver point standings, this team remains relatively intact for the beginning of the 2014 season. Jamie keeps his seat with Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates and welcomes new crew chief Keith Rodden, who replaces Kevin "Bono" Manion in that capacity. Though 37-year old McMurray still looks like the fresh-faced youngster that took over for Sterling Marlin in 2002 when he suffered a broken neck in a crash at Kansas, winning his second race out at the Cup level in Charlotte, 2014 will find him the elder statesman in the Ganassi stable as they welcome young Kyle Larson to his rookie year in the big leagues. Larson replaces the departing Juan Pablo Montoya. Jamie should prove to be a good role model for the aspiring young racer, having recorded wins in both the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400 in his career. That's number one, gentle readers, and we are, as they say, "Off to the races." My prediction for Jamie in the upcoming season is probably more of the same. Middle of the road, with one win likely, two possible, and missing the Chase, but not by much.
No. 2- Brad
Keselowski (Alabama Fitz)
Anxious; Chancy; Exciting; Accomplished. Can any other four words describe this driver? He was anxious to win his first Sprint Cup Championship. As such, he took some risky chances. When a driver does that, it makes for exciting racing. He learned a lot about dealing with on-track pressures in 2010 and 2011 when he tussled with Edwards and Busch the Younger. He got it together and accomplished his goal of winning the Championship in 2012. He hit the tracks in 2013 ready to defend and repeat, but the racing gods didn't smile on him very much. Now, he is anxious to regain the Championship, so ....here we go again? He wants to prove the 2012 Championship was not a fluke. The 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion had a bit of a down year, in that he didn't repeat....but few do, so..... His 2013 record ended with one win, one pole, nine Top 5s, 16 Top 10s and only one DNF when, sometime after leading for a total of 31 laps, his engine gave out! Otherwise, he might have made the Chase and repeated. He has been with Penske since 2010 and has done nothing but provide good results. With on known major changes due, at least at this writing, I'd say look for more of the the Blue Deuce up front and another exciting year for you Brad fans, possibly Championship #2 for car #2.
No. 3- Austin Dillon (PattyKay Lilley)
First, I must thank Jim for giving me this driver and this number, while asking me to write a "paragraph or two" about the combo. How about a book partner? For the last dozen years, this team ran under the Richard Childress Racing banner as the No. 29 with driver, Kevin Harvick, and for those same 12 years, RCR paid for and kept the rights to the No. 3 in all three of NASCAR's top series, Cup, Nationwide and Trucks. Yes folks, the No. 3 is coming back to Cup. It's a number, not a living, breathing entity, and in NASCAR circles (pun intended) it's been held for many years by RCR. I'll wager that none among you loved watching Dale Earnhardt on the race track any more than this old gal, and I welcome back the No. 3 with open arms. I hope you can all do the same.
The new driver in the seat of the newly returned No. 3 is Austin Dillon, oldest grandson of Richard Childress and candidate for 2014 Sprint Cup Rookie of the Year. At the tender age of 23, Austin already boasts Championships in both Nationwide and Truck series. Crew chief Gil Martin remains with the team, and sponsors for young Dillon include Dow Chemical, General Mills' Cheerios brand, Bass Pro Shops, Realtree Outdoors, American Ethanol and the University of Northwestern Ohio. RCR stable mates for Austin will be returning driver Paul Menard in the #27 and new arrival, Ryan Newman, replacing Jeff Burton in the #31. Please join me in wishing Austin good luck in the year to come. It's shaping up to be the best Rookie of the Year battle in many years.
Polishing my crystal ball and looking ahead, I see for Austin the usual ups and downs of a rookie season. Gil Martin is good, but I'm not sure he's a babysitter and might not have the tender guiding hand of say, a Larry Mac with Davey Allison. No wins and no Chase for Austin in 2014.
No. 4- Kevin Harvick (Kevin Abraham)
Harvick finds himself in a new seat and a new car number this year, after announcing after his win in Phoenix back in November 2011 that he was leaving Richard Childress Racing. He moved to Stewart-Haas Racing, where he will be teammates with former champions Tony Stewart, and Kurt Busch. He will also be a teammate to Danica Patrick, and have access to the ageless Mark Martin as the team's test driver. In 2013 as a lame duck for RCR, Harvick ended up with four wins, nine top-fives and twenty-one top-tens, and he tied his best finish in points with a third in the final standings. (Interesting fact: Harvick has finished third in points in three of the last four seasons). Harvick has the desire to win and is hoping the scenery change to SHR will propel him to that elusive Sprint Cup Championship. In 2014, keep an eye out for Harvick to win at Phoenix and Richmond. “The Closer” will also come from nowhere and swipe wins at any track if teams are not keeping an eye on him Expect Harvick to be a driver competing for the 2014 Sprint Cup Championship as well.
No. 5- Kasey Kahne (Jim Fitzgerald)
Aside from Hendrick Motorsports making Valvoline their preferred lubricant, everything will be the same for Kasey Kahne in 2014. If you would ask Kasey, however, he’d probably tell you he would want a lot to change for the new season. Kahne did make the Chase in 2013, but had a dismal run of it, finishing 12th in the points. He did score two wins, matching his total from 2012, but his Championship run had much better results (4th). Kahne will be looking to improve his numbers all around in 2014. The place to start would be those second place finishes. Kahne had six of them in 2013. If half of those get converted to wins, there is a good possibility when they reset for the Chase that he would be at or near the top of the standing based on those win bonuses. Then once in the Chase, he really needs to be able to close. There’s only one No. 48 out there, and asking Kahne to perform to that level, especially against his own teammate may be a stretch, and possibly unfair, but everyone else is asking their drivers to do the same, and Kahne should be no different. Short story long, I predict three to four wins and a top 5 finish in the points for Kahne.
No. 7- Michael Annett (Kevin Abraham)
Annett finds himself being promoted to the Sprint Cup ranks after five full seasons in the Nationwide series. Annett is scheduled to make his Sprint Cup debut in the 2014 Daytona 500, and is competing for Rookie of the Year in the Sprint Cup series. In 2013, Annett finished fifteenth in the Nationwide series points, due to missing eight races with a broken sternum from a crash in the season opening race in Daytona. Annett showed promise in 2012 with six top-fives, and seventeen top-tens, however after returning from his injury in May, Annett was able to only earn only one top-five and four top-tens the rest of the year. Annett's Sprint Cup team (Tommy Baldwin Racing) is not a top team in Sprint Cup, but the team has shown flashes of being a contender with sponsorship, which is what Annett brings to the table. In 2014, stealing a top-five on a restrictor plate track is not out of the question for this team, as TBR has a strong restrictor place program, otherwise a good day for this team will be a top-fifteen finish. I look for this team to finish in the top thirty in points, and not be a contender for the Chase. The expectations are for this team to run mid-pack and for Annett to fly under the radar of the media spotlight as he gains valuable track experience. I do not see Annett winning Rookie of the Year, but I can see him winning some Rookie of the Race honors, depending on how quick the other rookies adapt to the Sprint Cup series.
No. 9- Marcos Ambrose (Jim Fitzgerald)
Still with Richard Petty Motorsports, still getting engine from Roush/Yates, and still driving the No. 9 Ford Fusion is Marcos Ambrose. The “Thunder From Down Under” had to be a bit disappointed with his 2013 campaign. After two consecutive seasons with a win at Watkins Glen, and despite leading more than 50 laps in the 2013 version, Ambrose was unable to close the deal, and only brought home six top ten finishes while coming home 22nd in points. Sponsorship will remain the same on the car, but as the September Dover race, Twisted Tea will be coming aboard. Ambrose is a road racer, proven by his record, and that is where he will have the most success. He’s strong enough on the road courses that I will give him a win at one of them, but the rest of the season should look a lot like this one. No Chase, one win, two top-fives, and nine top-tens for Ambrose in 2014.
No. 10- Danica Patrick (Jim Fitzgerald)
Things will not change much for Danica Patrick and the No. 10 GoDaddy Chevy, except that GoDaddy will have a little bit of a break now and then. Aspen Dental will be the primary sponsor on the car for the Las Vegas race in March and the Atlanta race in August. It will also be on the car as an associate sponsor for the rest of the races throughout the season. It seems as if we have been talking about Danica Patrick for years, but what everyone should remember is that she is only entering her sophomore season. She has less than 50 races under her hat in a Cup car. This may be a telling season, though. She has been to every track at least once, and the learning curve should be swinging upward. Crew Chief Tony Gibson is returning, while Patrick’s other team mates at Stewart-Haas Racing all have faces atop the pit boxes. I’m not expecting wins, or anything Earth shattering from Patrick or the team this year, but we’ll see if she can turn those top-thirty finishes into top-twenty finishes on a consistent basis. I don’t see her contending for the Championship nor making the Chase. I would expect 2-4 top-tens, and far fewer finishes of thirtieth or worse.
No. 11- Denny Hamlin (Jim Fitzgerald)
There is nothing new under the sun for the No. 11 Fed-Ex Toyota except a new season, which means they can forget about the last one. Just a dreadful 2013 for Hamlin and the team which saw him miss four races because of a broken back suffered in March. Even with missing those races, hopes were still high that Hamlin could rip off a few wins and make the Chase via the wild card, but it never materialized. They did finally score a win in the final race of the 2013 campaign at Homestead, keeping Hamlin’s win streak alive at eight years strong. In 2014, Hamlin will have the many faces of Fed-Ex as his sponsor as usual, and Great Clips will be on the car for two races as well. 2011 Championship-winning Darian Grubb is returning as the crew chief. I look for Hamlin to rebound strong. The Gibbs organization is top-notch, the equipment is great, and Hamlin is healthy once again. I look for three to five wins, probably at the Hamlin friendly tracks such as Martinsville, Texas, and Richmond. He should make the Chase again after missing it in 2013 for the first time in his career. Those top-five and top-ten finishes should also return as well, I’m thinking 12 of the former, and 26 of the latter.
No. 13- Casey Mears (Alabama Fitz)
Germain Racing will start its second full year in Sprint in 2014. They are an accomplished team in that they have two Championships in the Truck Series. There are two significant changes to Casey's team: first, they are switching to Chevy, and second, they aligned with RCR. To balance that, they have a full year of sponsorship from Geico, and Casey is currently under a multi-year contract. Casey's main problem seems to be qualifying. He generally qualifies in the mid to lower half of the qualifiers, and doesn't usually pick up many spots during a race, even though he has done so on occasion. I would classify him as a mid-pack runner. Even with his lone win, at Charlotte in 2007, he qualified 16th. He will have to learn the handling characteristics of a different manufacturer and do it at all the tracks. That's formidable in itself. Next thought: how long will RCR be willing to continue to deal with a mid-pack runner. I'd say not long. He is going to want a return on his investment and fairly quickly. Will RCR demands get to Casey? Good question. Prognosis: expect to hear his name more and more as 2014 rolls along. A Top 15 in points isn't unreachable, but maybe stretching it a bit...I'd say a Top 20, which would be an improvement over 2013...RCR might settle for that.
That’s all we have for this week, but be sure to check back next week for the second part of our 2014 Season Preview!