Fast Forward ~ The Oral-B 500 At Atlanta Fantasy Race Picks And Preview
“The future is like a corridor into which we can see only by the light coming from behind.”
–Edward Weyer, Jr.
The Track: Atlanta Motor Speedway
Location: Hampton, Georgia
Length: 1.54 Mile Quad Oval
Banking: Turns- 24 degrees, Straightaways- 5 degrees
Pit Road Speed: 45 MPH
The Race: The Oral-B 500
325 Laps/ 500.5 Miles
Defending Champion: Kyle Busch, 135.128mph
Most recent winner: Kyle Busch, 135.128mph
Track Record: Dale Earnhardt, 11/12/1995, 163.633 MPH
Race Record: Dale Earnhardt, 11/12/1995, 163.633 MPH
Qualifying Record: Geoff Bodine, 11/16/1997, 197.478 MPH
TV:ESPN, 7:30PM EST
Radio: SiriusXM 90, PRN (www.goprn)
The History:
Was originally called Atlanta International Raceway, measuring at 1.5 miles.
7/31/1960- First race was run, and won by Fireball Roberts
1970-Track was remeasured to 1.522 miles
1990-Renamed Atlanta Motor Speedway
3/20/1993-Morgan Shepherd becomes the oldest race winner at 51 years, 5 months, 8 days.
1997-Track was reversed, and reconfigured to 1.54 miles with the addition of the front stretch dogleg.
3/11/2001-Kevin Harvick sets the mark for closest margin of victory by 0.006 seconds over Jeff Gordon
3/9/2008- Kyle Busch becomes the youngest race winner at 22 years, 10 months, 7 days.
The Contenders:
Top 10 Driver Ratings at Atlanta:
#24-Jeff Gordon 105.6
#48-Jimmie Johnson 104.8
#14-Tony Stewart 100.2
#99-Carl Edwards 100.0
#20-Matt Kenseth 96.5
#11-Denny Hamlin 96.2
#41-Kurt Busch 94.5
#18-Kyle Busch 94.4
#88-Dale Earnhardt Jr. 93.3
#78-Martin Truex Jr. 91.4
Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2013 races (15 total) among active drivers at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
The Picks:
As we always do, let’s see how we all did last week before getting to this week’s picks…
No winners from Bristol, but the race for the last transfer spot is tighter than Denny Hamlin’s fists after getting tapped by Harvick!
Player |
Selection |
Race Pts |
Previous Pts |
Total Pts |
Behind |
Wins |
DNFs |
|
Mr. Seven |
99 |
37 |
935 |
972 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Mr. Pole |
4 |
34 |
919 |
953 |
-19 |
5 |
2 |
|
Vivian |
2 |
43 |
854 |
897 |
-75 |
4 |
2 |
|
Darrell |
5 |
10 |
866 |
876 |
-96 |
3 |
2 |
|
Mr. Winner |
20 |
42 |
832 |
874 |
-98 |
1 |
2 |
|
Brian Marchetti |
20 |
42 |
800 |
842 |
-130 |
1 |
2 |
|
PattyKay Lilley |
5 |
10 |
827 |
837 |
-135 |
1 |
1 |
|
Nate |
4 |
34 |
795 |
829 |
-143 |
1 |
3 |
|
Alabama Fitz |
20 |
42 |
768 |
810 |
-162 |
2 |
4 |
|
Jim Fitzgerald |
5 |
10 |
800 |
810 |
-162 |
1 |
2 |
|
Barbara |
16 |
34 |
764 |
798 |
-174 |
1 |
3 |
|
Kevin Abraham |
99 |
37 |
749 |
786 |
-186 |
2 |
4 |
|
If Playoff Started Today |
|
|||||||
Player |
Selection |
Race Pts |
Previous Pts |
Total Pts |
Behind |
Wins |
DNFs |
Chase Pts |
Mr. Pole |
4 |
34 |
919 |
953 |
-19 |
5 |
2 |
2015 |
Vivian |
2 |
43 |
854 |
897 |
-75 |
4 |
2 |
2012 |
Darrell |
5 |
10 |
866 |
876 |
-96 |
3 |
2 |
2009 |
Alabama Fitz |
20 |
42 |
768 |
810 |
-162 |
2 |
4 |
2006 |
Kevin Abraham |
99 |
37 |
749 |
786 |
-186 |
2 |
4 |
2006 |
Mr. Winner |
20 |
42 |
832 |
874 |
-98 |
1 |
2 |
2003 |
Brian Marchetti |
20 |
42 |
800 |
842 |
-130 |
1 |
2 |
2003 |
PattyKay Lilley |
5 |
10 |
827 |
837 |
-135 |
1 |
1 |
2003 |
Nate |
4 |
34 |
795 |
829 |
-143 |
1 |
3 |
2003 |
Jim Fitzgerald |
5 |
10 |
800 |
810 |
-162 |
1 |
2 |
2003 |
Barbara |
16 |
34 |
764 |
798 |
-174 |
1 |
3 |
2003 |
Mr. Seven |
99 |
37 |
935 |
972 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2000 |
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Good morning Gentlemen. Considering my less than stellar finish at Bristol with the ever-unlucky Mr. Kahne, I'll start us off this week with a pick from the other end of the spectrum. I kind of hate to curse this guy when he's having such a great year, but I need the points and win, so Mama will be riding shotgun this week in the #24 with point-leader Jeff Gordon. Let's go racin'!!
ALABAMA FITZ: Well, PattyKay, with three wins in the bank, a stellar year so far, and as he is the 2011 winner, that is a very strong pick. Considering how many other drivers also have three wins, he won't be cruising.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: I broke it down to Jeff, Matt or Kevin. Matt is doing fine without a win, though would probably like one. So far, not in his cards though. Kevin is great at Atlanta, but I think a few might be gunning for him this week. No thanks; that could be a rather bumpy ride I'm thinking.
ALABAMA FITZ: Jeff is odds on, Matt may be thinking I need one but...., and Kevin may be watching out for Denny. To tell the truth, I've been bottlenecked with five drivers to choose from: Kyle Busch, Defending Champ, and 3 out last 4 Top 5s; Older brother, Kurt Busch, 2010 winner and 4 out of last 5 Top 5s; Denny Hamlin, 2012 winner and lap leader here in 8 of 14 races; Kevin "Happy" Harvick, with 3 straight and 7 out of ten Top 10s; and Gordon, 2011 winner, running extremely well this year, and is one of several drivers with three wins this year. Kevin and Denny are too risky with the possibility of them meeting on the track at ANY time, 1st lap or last lap, it doesn't matter. If Kyle is in a testing mode, he better get out of it quick before he forgets how to win. He's too shaky for me at this point. Kurt's longevity worries me this year, but his name keeps jumping into my eyeballs. Gordon will probably win it, but I'm going with another three time winner this year, a driver with little experience at "HOTlanta". In his last three he had a 6th, a 3rd, and a 35th due to a crash. He is back on a track that he can drive on...forget Bristol, not his fault. Riding with the #2 and Brad Keselowski.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: So many memorable finishes at this track in both configurations. From the 1992 Hooters 500 that hooked me as a fan, to the battle with Dale Earnhardt and Bobby Labonte in 2001, and the Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon finish in 2001, Atlanta has always had a special place in my heart. I am glad to see that this will be the last fake Labor Day weekend, as next year the Labor Day weekend race will go back to its rightful home in Darlington. Now to get Atlanta to finish the season again....but I digressed from picking a winner this week. The top 3 drivers by the numbers are Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart. Since I do not see Tony racing this weekend, That leaves Jeff and Jimmie as the Top 2 dogs. I looked at Kyle Busch, but he still has not shown me anything but implosion and issues with his crew chief in the last month. I looked at Kasey Kahne, but it is apparent he is keeping the No. 5 seat warm for Chase Elliot. I also looked at Carl Edwards but he does not impress me at the larger tracks. I really thought of choosing Jeff Gordon, but I don't know which Jeff Gordon will show up. I looked at the Penske cars, as both have done well at this track, but as I was looking through the finishes the last few years at this track and one name kept jumping out at me. I feel like picking a Outlaw this week, which means I am riding with Kurt Busch this week to lock me into the RFF Chase.
JIM FITZGERALD: Well, I've been looking for that separator...that one driver who will go into the Chase with more points than anyone else because of more wins. There are six different winners in the last six races at Atlanta so I had to really dig into the numbers to find out who my driver would be this week. Okay, not really. My driver, in all of his starts here has top ten finishes in more than half of those races, 26 of them actually. He also has five wins and two poles. I'm looking for Jeff Gordon to continue his winning ways and head into the chase with more wins and more points than everyone else.
BRIAN MARCHETTI: Seems to me that Gordon and Harvick would be the front runners for the top spot in Atlanta this week. I'm still rooting for Kenseth to get a win, and I rarely pick Kurt Busch for any race, as he is hit or miss with me. Kyle won here last year, and Earnhardt Jr has 2 Top 10s in the last 2 races, but still not enough for my vote. Gordon and Kenseth both have Averages of running in the Top 10 over the last 15 races in Atlanta, but as Mama pointed out last season, What they did 10 years ago just doesn't count for today. There was a time when someone mentioned Atlanta, people just assumed Carl Edwards would win.....this too, does not apply for today. So where do I go this week? I've neglected to mention Jimmie, as I think Chad has either bumped his head, or the more likely, knows more than everybody else about what he's doing. With that, I'm torn between my love for Gordon, and my gut on Kenseth. We can't take away that Kenseth is sitting pretty in the 5th spot with no wins, but Top 5s in more than 1/3 of the races this season (9), but is that enough? Not for me. I have to ride with the Rainbow Warrior at least one more time......Gordon for the Win.
JIM FITZGERALD: Now, let’s see what our fans have in mind for this weekend…
Nate: I’d take Morgan Shepherd if this was 1993. But, I think I'm going to go out on a limb and go with Kurt Busch at Atlanta. He's been more or less pretty consistent there the past few years.
Darrell: Going way out on the limb this week. Taking Kyle B. Crabby. Whiny *%$ has got something to prove this week.
Vivian: Someone who usually does well there that I have a gut feeling about is going to win at Atlanta and that is why I am picking Kevin Harvick. He has the speed and it is time for his crew to prove they have it all together.
Barbara: Picking a winner this year isn’t much above telling how many fish you’re coming back with. The way things are going, would make a lot of sense to pick Tony. But then, there’s our Jeffie who would win for nostalgia sake, and very well could do it. This track could send a sleeper to the front. Having vacillated on a choice - - for pity’s sake Matt, in your #20, Get ‘Er Done! Sink or swim: Matt Kenseth
There it is folks….two races remain…who gets into the Chase? Who has their season validated, and who has it voided? We’ll find out and be here to talk about it next week, so until then, keep the shiny side up!
Our Picks For This Week!
Kevin Abraham |
Alabama Fitz |
Jim Fitzgerald |
PattyKay Lilley |
Brian Marchetti |
Darrell |
Nate |
Who is YOUR pick to win this week?
Correctly choose the winner before the green flag drops on Sunday, and you'll be entered into a drawing to win some racing stuff!