Fast Forward ~ The Duck Commander 500 At Texas Fantasy Race Picks And Preview
“The future is like a corridor into which we can see only by the light coming from behind.”
–Edward Weyer, Jr.
The Track: Texas Motor Speedway
Location: Ft.Worth, Texas
Length: 1.5 Mile Quad Oval
Banking: 24 degrees in turns 1-2
24 degrees in turns 3-4
5 degrees on the backstretch
5 degrees on the front stretch
Pit Road Speed:45 MPH
The Race: The Duck Commander 500
334 Laps/ 501 Miles
Defending Champion: Kyle Busch, 144.751 MPH
Most recent winner: Jimmie Johnson, 151.754 MPH
Track Record: Greg Biffle, 160.577 MPH- April, 2012
Race Record: Greg Biffle, 160.577 MPH- April, 2012
Qualifying record: Kyle Busch, 196.299 MPH, April 2013
TV:FOX 3:00PM
Radio: PRN (www.goprn.com) Sirius XM Channel 90
The History:
April 11, 1995-Construction begins on the Texas Motor Speedway.
April 5, 1997-Mark Martin wins the first NASCAR sanctioned race at the facility.
April 6, 1997- Jeff Burton wins the first Cup series race at Texas. Qualifying for this event was cancelled due to weather issues.
April 1, 2001 – Dale Jarrett becomes the oldest race winner at 44 years, 4 months, 6 days
April 29, 2001- A 600 mile event for the CART series was to be held. More than 80% of the drivers complained of dizziness during practice for the event. CART cancelled the race two hours before the event was to begin.
March 30, 2003- Ryan Newman becomes the youngest winner at 25 years, 3 months, 22 days.
2005-Texas is given a second annual NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race.
2011-The spring race at Texas was moved to Saturday night, then back to a day race in 2014.
The Picks
Before we get into this week’s picks, let’s look at last week’s results from Martinsville!
Player |
Selection |
Race Pts |
Previous Pts |
Total Pts |
Behind |
Wins |
DNFs |
Mr. Winner |
48 |
44 |
236 |
280 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Mr. Pole |
18 |
31 |
247 |
278 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
Vivian |
48 |
44 |
229 |
273 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
PattyKay Lilley |
24 |
32 |
232 |
264 |
16 |
1 |
0 |
Mr. Seven |
4 |
38 |
224 |
262 |
18 |
0 |
0 |
Alabama Fitz |
2 |
6 |
226 |
232 |
48 |
1 |
0 |
Barbara |
24 |
32 |
198 |
230 |
50 |
1 |
1 |
Jim Fitzgerald |
48 |
44 |
186 |
230 |
50 |
0 |
0 |
Brian Marchetti |
24 |
32 |
194 |
226 |
54 |
0 |
0 |
Nate |
24 |
32 |
184 |
216 |
64 |
0 |
1 |
Robyn Vandenberg |
41 |
47 |
167 |
214 |
66 |
1 |
0 |
Darrell |
24 |
32 |
149 |
181 |
99 |
0 |
2 |
Kevin Abraham |
24 |
32 |
149 |
181 |
99 |
0 |
1 |
We appear to be slowly succumbing to the Ghost players of our game, but the season is still early...
So, let’s get on to it for this week’s race at Texas!
BRIAN MARCHETTI: I’m breaking my streak. I’m going first.
JIM FITZGERALD: Kevin, don’t feint!
KEVIN ABRAHAM: (Clutching his chest) “I’m coming home, Elizabeth!”
BRIAN MARCHETTI: Everyone’s got the jokes…anyway; once again, playing on a hunch doesn't fair me well, so I'm back to the numbers this week. Kenseth and Johnson both seem to be top dogs at Texas, and each holds a good spot in a number of categories. My gut says go with Johnson, but the numbers tell me Kenseth is my best bet. If the two were a dead even toss up, I would sway with Kenseth, as he seems to close with a little better numbers late in the run. His quality passes, late run fastest lap, fastest average laps, etc., all show me a strong closer in the #20 car. I hope he stays out of trouble, and brings me a win this week. For those of you who pay even the slightest attention to me, go with Johnson, he will probably dominate and win, but I’m taking Kenseth.
ROBYN VANDENBERG: I hope you’re wrong. I’m, already tired of Johnson and Kyle Busch. I know I sound like a “hater”, but I’m not. I’m just being honest.
ALABAMA FITZ: I haven't decided yet, Brian, I'm still crunching numbers. Ouch! Did I say "crunch"? Well, at least ol' Kurt didn't get me this week...yet! But I agree with you in that Matt and JJ seem to own at least a little piece of this track.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Well, my pick this week is the driver that has shown a lot of potential this year. Texas is a track that has been kind to first time winners in the past so I look for this driver to break out and win this week. I pick Austin Dillon. Just kidding. My real pick is Kyle Larson as he really impressed me at California and I want to be the one to pick him first! Place the Target in victory lane Kyle!!
ALABAMA FITZ: That's a gutsy call here Kevin, especially for a rookie. Larson has run well a couple of times already in 2014. If I were brave, like you, I might pick him for his performance thus far this year. It just may work out for you.
JIM FITZGERALD: The kid has impressed me as well, Kev, and I could be wrong, but I don’t know that he has the experience required. I think that’s where Larson will fall short in the rookie battle. Dillon has two full years in the Trucks and NNS, while Larson does not have that same level of experience. That’s going to be an interesting battle to watch!
ROBYN VANDENBERG: Well, I hope I can get it right two weeks in a row, so here goes. My picks is based on “Everything Is Bigger In Texas.” That said, I see a HUGE comeback for the man called “Smoke.” My pick this week is Tony Stewart.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Tony is due, and I looked at him, but his numbers just aren't quite there for me.
JIM FITZGERALD: Well, we keep talking about judgment, and so far this year mine has been a little off. I'm pretty sure at this point last year I had 124 wins already, but this year, a big zero.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: 124 wins...now you are using BZF math on here....
JIM FITZGERALD: What? Okay, maybe the 124 wins was a slight exaggeration. Back to judgment, I'm going to use the bad form of it again, and go with one of Brian's selections. Last week, I picked Jimmie Johnson. Kevin gave me some flak for it, and I was pretty sure it was a lock, and it was until Kurt Busch ruined my day. I think, like Robyn said, everything is bigger in Texas, including the comebacks made by me, and the wins by Matt Kenseth.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Kenseth is a solid pick for this weekend. I just still am not wowed by him this year yet. If Kenseth is your golden ticket again this year, he needs to start giving you some W's. I actually almost went with Joey Logano this weekend, but the two weeks I picked him, I was burnt by the pick. I thought about Kurt Busch winning back to back, but thought it was unlikely. Texas has not been kind to Kyle Busch (being black flagged in 2010 for flipping the bird at an NASCAR official, and being suspended from the fall race in 2011 for intentionally wrecking Ron Hornaday in a truck race.) I thought of Jeff Gordon, but his record overall was not good here. I thought about Keselowski as well, but I do not believe the feud between him and Kurt Busch is over. That is why I took Larson. Looking for the first win, Texas is kind to first time winners (Jeff Burton and Dale Jr.), and Larson has the speed this year to pull off the W. He is the best rookie this year so far. However, I believe I have Fitz's Kiss of Death this year, after looking back at my picks and their finishes. Sorry Kyle Larson.
ALABAMA FITZ: Howdy y'all !! "Kiss of Death" here, coming to you from beautiful, warm, sunny Alabama. Some of you are not going to like my choice this week, while others will be ecstatic! Before I get into that, Kurt ruined the day for many people last week. I just need to know if the Keselowski family did something to the Busch family 30 years ago? The next chapter of this feud should take place at Bristol or Martinsville even though Kurt said "He will get what he gets back when I decide to give it back.” Why there? Because they are the two safest tracks for retaliation. BTW, NASCAR should consider a $1M fine for retaliation.
JIM FITZGERALD: Good Lord, no! That’s all we need is a bunch of guys running around the track scared to touch each other for fear of a missed call by NASCAR. I think they should give them a bonus for it. Drama makes for good races. I think Sonoma or Richmond could be a good place for some payback as well!
ALABAMA FITZ: Now then, here's a thought to ponder: This is the "Duck Commander 500" and I believe Bowyer's sponsor this week is "Willies Duck Diner". Extra incentive? Picking Bowyer in this race has entered my mind a couple of times. Another point: Jimmie Johnson's brother-in-law (his wife's brother) was killed in a skydiving accident last Sunday. Will that give JJ extra incentive? Looking at numbers the way I look at them says Matt, JJ and Carl in that order. Looking at incentive says JJ, Matt and Carl in that order. Fly in the soup = Bowyer. I think JJ and Matt could wind up 1 - 2 and in that order. Jimmie Johnson for the win. By the way, Matt won the 2 out of 3 coin tosses on the third toss and he won the 3 out of 5 on the fourth toss. Harbinger of things to come? Kiss of Death signing off.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Mama is here now to tell you all which way the wind blows. Everyone else has parsed and dissected the "numbers" and someone even "crunched" them. What are they, corn flakes? Grape nuts? As I keep trying to convince certain stubborn folks in these parts, always go with the Mo! Well, in this case, the immediate Mo would go to Kurt Busch, but it's reasonable to expect he may run into (Or be run into) a slight problem before the Texas race is through. I'll point no fingers and just leave that to your imagination. So... Mo, Mo, who's got the Mo? Probably no one more so than the guy that ran second at Martinsville, that six-pack packin', racin' wonder, Jimmie Johnson. Fitz beat me to picking JJ, but who cares? Even a blind squirrel... well, you know. That's it. Mama's ridin' with Jimmie Johnson this week, all the way past the checkers and into that big, beautiful Texas sunset.
ALABAMA FITZ: That's right Mama! Even a blind squirrel can find Victory Lane! I did!
PATTYKAY LILLEY: It just proves that Mama isn't afraid of some silly "Kiss of Death" tale. Mama stands behind her man, and this week her man is JJ. First time out for him in my picks this year. It's time! Chad won't let him fall too far behind. There's a guy that really knows how to crunch those numbers.
ALABAMA FITZ: Hey Mama! Who you callin' "silly?”
KEVIN ABRAHAM: If I was going on 'Mo, I would be taking the current Points Leader, Dale, Jr., as he still has the 'mo on, and Texas is a decent track for him. I am standing behind Larson as my pick this week, even if he end up with the dreaded 'KOD' this weekend. I have nothing to lose and everything to WIN! I need wins, not good point days, as currently I am outside the Chase, in the 'doghouse' all because I started out on the wrong foot, and picked drivers that did not deliver in the races I needed them to deliver in.
ALABAMA FITZ: Kevin, I think we have all picked at least one that didn't produce so don't feel like the "lone stranger".
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Considering the “Outlaw” outlawed your pick last week, this is true.
JIM FITZGERALD: Kurt and Brad are going to wind up in trouble if they continue this on an open track. They need to watch some old films of Rusty Wallace and Dale, Sr. They were pros at it and Dale taught Rusty everything he knew...well, almost. Dale was still able to take Rusty out at Bristol one year and it didn't look like Dale even touched him!! He was the master at that!
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Dale taught Rusty everything Rusty knew. He never taught anyone everything that Dale knew.
ALABAMA FITZ: Isn’t that what I said?
JIM FITZGERALD: Well, speaking of teaching, one of our fans is teaching us how to play our own game. Currently third in points, Vivian is our first fan to pick this week!
The Fan Picks:
Vivian: The Duck Commander 500 will be won by someone who already has a win this year. My driver and his crew chief want to make their last season together a memorable one, so I am picking Dale Earnhardt, Jr. to win at Texas on Sunday.
Nate: I’m going to take Carl Edwards this week. He’s usually strong at Texas!
Barbara: I’m taking a Roush/Fenway car as well, but it’s not Edwards. I’m going with The No. 16 car, Greg Biffle this week!
Darrell: Every week I pick the best car who had the worst luck. I'm sitting down in there in near last place. This week I will take a different approach. I threw darts at the wall and it stuck on Matt Kenseth. So there you have it...that's my pick.
There you have it indeed! This week we have a pick for Kyle Larson, one for Tony Stewart, one for Greg Biffle, one for Carl Edwards, one for Dale Earnhardt, Jr., two for Jimmie Johnson and three for Matt Kenseth, though one of them was because of the throw of a dart. So, we’ll see how that all works out this weekend! We’ll be back next week to recap as always, but until then, best wishes, and keep the shiny side up!
“Some folks look at me and see a certain swagger, which in Texas is called ‘walking.’”- George W. Bush
Our Picks For This Week!
Kevin Abraham |
Brian Marchetti |
Alabama Fitz |
Darrell |
Nate |
Who is YOUR pick to win this week?
Correctly choose the winner before the green flag drops on Sunday, and you'll be entered into a drawing to win some racing stuff!