Fan's Eye View ~Is It Panic Time For Drivers Without Wins?6/18/2014 |
Good Day to you, my race friends! I hope this same sunny morning I find in
Maryland is greeting you wherever you may be, and welcoming you to a new
day. I see this sunny day as a bridge
leading me out of the old race weekend and into the unknown of the next one. As our Sprint Cup Series takes us from
Michigan to Sonoma, it should be noted that this will be race number sixteen,
meaning after the race is completed, we’ll be on our way to the Race to the
Chase. This is, of course, the ten race
lead in to the Chase for the Championship. With fifteen races in the books, it’s not really a surprise
to see Jimmie Johnson positioned to take the point lead after Richmond has been
completed in a few months. In fact, a
lot of the usual crew has themselves locked into the Chase by way of winning
one or more races. As of right now, our
Chase field would begin with Jimmie Johnson because of his three wins, and
include Dale Earnhardt, Jr.,Joey Logano and Kevin
Harvick, who all have two wins, and Jeff Gordon, Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards,
Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Kurt Busch, who have a
single win each at this time. Matt
Kenseth, Kyle Larson, Ryan Newman, Paul Menard, Clint Bowyer and Greg Biffle would
make it today as well based on points. It is this last grouping of six drivers that is weighing on
my “what if” mind. The closer a driver
is to the bottom of that list, as long as a win is not forthcoming, the more
danger he is in of losing that spot in the Chase. So, with eleven races to go, is it time to
stress or panic for those drivers who have not yet won? Consider this: There are eleven races to go until the cutoff
at Richmond. For those six drivers, and
any others who hope to make the Chase for the Championship field, the window of
opportunity is closing, quickly. Now, I
have heard many folks say that for a driver such as Matt Kenseth, there is
little need to panic. The winner of
seven races last season should be able to pull off one in the next eleven,
right? Piece of cake, except for the
fact that the team has been unable to score a win in the first fifteen races of
the season. Think about that, and then
tell me why would the next eleven be any
different. But at least Kenseth should
make it in on points, though, right? Not necessarily. Let’s take a look at what tracks remain. Sonoma and Watkins Glen, the two road
courses, have a history, especially recently, of providing us with perhaps some
surprise wins. By drivers who are not normally in the weekly conversation when
it comes to winning a race. Look at the
last six road course races. Two wins by
Marcos Ambrose, one by Clint Bowyer, one by Martin Truex, Jr,
and one each by Kurt and Kyle Busch. No
Johnsons, no Kenseths, no Harvicks,
no Stewarts, and no Edwards’ in there.
This year may follow that trend, especially if you consider those
drivers who have won a race already. In
past years, when points were king, drivers tested on road courses and
practiced. I’m guessing that those
drivers who already have wins just might let those road course races scoot by
without putting much of an effort into them.
Assume the worst case scenario for the winless drivers, with perhaps a
Clint Bowyer and a Marcos Ambrose winning one each, and that reduced the number
of “guaranteed” Chase spots to four. We have another race at Daytona yet to come as well. While historically, Daytona does not produce
as many shock winners as its sister track of Talladega, it is still a
restrictor plate track, and all one needs to do to win is to lead the draft on
the final lap. Sure, it could be one of
our Chase seeking drivers, but it could also be David Ragan as well. Whether Ragan would have enough points to be
in the top 30 and use that win to make the Chase remains to be seen, but if he
does, that brings the available automatic Chase bids down to three. The Brickyard 400 is usually some type of enigma. Either someone dominates it start to finish, or
we have something happen which gives us a surprise victor. Did anyone really see Jamie McMurray, Ryan
Newman, or Paul Menard winning those races when they did? I didn’t.
Do you know why? Because if you
look at the last six races there, and subtract those three previously mentioned
winners, the only other name on the trophy is “Jimmie Johnson.” Oh, and you can throw Juan Pablo Montoya in
there as a wild card as well, since he is running the race and has come within
a breath of winning it as well. There is Kentucky coming up next week, where Kenseth is the
defending Champion, as he was as well at Bristol. For Kasey Kahne, who is also searching for
that win, we will be visiting Pocono again in a few weeks, which is the last race Kahne won, just a year ago. Then again, maybe Tony Stewart can find some
of his old Road Course magic and steal one of them to earn his way in. Can Brian Vickers pull off another win at
Loudon to make his way in? Put all of this together, and you have a recipe, not for
just “we need to win,” but “we need to win as soon as possible.” For drivers such as Stewart, Kahne, Kenseth,
Newman, Vickers and Greg Biffle, and even Jamie McMurray, drivers who won last
year but are on the outside looking in so far this season, winning has got to
be at the top of the list of things which need to get done, and soon. The clock
is ticking, and the Chase is coming. Until next time, my friends…
Feel free to leave comments below, and be sure to follow me @RaceFansJim on Twitter, because sometimes I give stuff away!