Fast Forward ~ The Food City 500 At Bristol Fantasy Race Picks And Preview
3/13/2014
Staff
Article
The Track: Bristol Motor Speedway
Location: Bristol, Tennessee
Length: .533 Mile Oval
Banking: 24-30 degrees in turns 1-2;
24-30 degrees in turns 3-4;
4-9 degrees on the backstretch,
4-9 on the front
Pit Road Speed: 30 MPH
The Race: The Food City 500
500 Laps/ 266.5 Miles
Defending Champion: Kasey Kahne 92.206 MPH
Most recent winner: Matt Kenseth 90.279 MPH
Track Record: Charlie Glotzbach, July 1971, 101.074 MPH
Race Record: Cale Yarborough, April, 1977, 100.989 MPH
Qualifying Record: Kyle Busch, March 2013, 129.535 MPH
TV:FOX, 1:00 PM EST
Radio: SiriusXM 90, PRN (www.goprn)
The History:
July 30th, 1961- The first race at Bristol was the Volunteer 500, and was run on Johnny Allen took the checkered flag, but he was driving in relief for official race winner Jack Smith.
1969-Track was reconfigured and remeasured. Banking was increased to 36 degrees.
1992-Speedway surface was changed from asphalt to concrete.
1996-Track owner Larry Carrier sold Bristol to Speedway Motorsports, Inc.
August 28th, 1999- Dale Earnhardt, Sr. becomes the oldest winner at the track at 48 years, 3 months, 30 days.
March 25, 2007-Kyle Busch becomes the youngest winner at the track at 21 years, 10 months, 23 days.
August 2010-Kyle Busch becomes the first driver to sweep a three race weekend, winning the Camping World Truck Series race on Wednesday, The Nationwide Series race on Friday, and the Sprint Cup Series race on Sunday.
Race Pro Picks!
Before we get to the picks for this week, let’s review how we did last week. PattyKay almost had win No. 2 for the season, but it was Vivian taking her second win of the season when Dale Jr. sputtered. Here are the updated point standings:
Player |
Selection |
Race Pts |
Previous Pts |
Total Pts |
Behind |
Wins |
DNFs |
Vivian |
2 |
48 |
124 |
172 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
PattyKay Lilley |
88 |
43 |
126 |
169 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
Mr. Pole |
22 |
41 |
126 |
167 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
Alabama Fitz |
99 |
40 |
123 |
163 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
Barbara |
99 |
40 |
120 |
160 |
12 |
1 |
1 |
Brian Marchetti |
99 |
40 |
116 |
156 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
Mr. Seven |
31 |
37 |
112 |
149 |
23 |
0 |
0 |
Jim Fitzgerald |
20 |
35 |
110 |
145 |
27 |
0 |
0 |
Robyn Vandenberg |
48 |
39 |
98 |
137 |
35 |
0 |
0 |
Darrell |
48 |
39 |
96 |
135 |
37 |
0 |
1 |
Kevin Abraham |
41 |
18 |
101 |
119 |
53 |
0 |
1 |
Nate |
99 |
40 |
77 |
117 |
55 |
0 |
1 |
So, Vivian is our new point leader, and one of our fans is taking the Pros to the woodshed! Let’s see how it all plays out this week…
PATTYKAY LILLEY: I’m getting my pick in, and I’m doing it early. As Buddy Baker so eloquently put it, not winning is like being the second man to discover America. However, we're off to the short tracks for a couple of weeks and I'll be rolling in slop in Hog Heaven while we're there. I'm not waiting for some slowpoke to go first. It's Bristol and without looking anywhere, I can pick the most likely 5 drivers to be in it to win it at the end. All will be fast and all know how to run this track, in any configuration, so what criteria should separate the best from the rest? Mama wants the guy or gal with the best pit position, which is usually the same guy or gal with the best qualifying position. So far this year, Pole and Penske have been synonymous, so please put me down for a heaping helping of Brad Keselowski for the first time this year. Hey, it's Bristol Baby, and Brad knows Bristol. My bet? Kyle Busch will be the favorite, both here and in Vegas, but when the checkers fly, it will be the Blue Deuce just ahead of that Candy Machine.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Speaking of Busches…After experiencing heartbreak with The Outlaw at Vegas, I would be foolish to double down with him this week. That is why I am going to place my money this week on a Penske car as well. I am picking the driver who almost won here last year. My pick is Joey Logano. He has quietly put together strong runs and is not afraid to beat and bang with the best of them.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: That’s a good pick Kevin. I had a hard time deciding which Penske car to ride with at Bristol. Both are good and both are racing very well this year. It was more of a coin flip than a firm decision to go with Brad, so between the two of us, we should have this one in the bag and sewed up. I’m anxious to hear what our new player, Robyn has to say?
ROBYN VANDENBERG: I’m just waiting it out, biding my time.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Well, I will gladly take a Penske 1-2 finish at Bristol. I thought about taking Earnhardt Jr., but the law of averages is about to catch up with him as Bristol is not one of his strong tracks. I also thought about Kasey Kahne but he seems to be driving old 88 equipment this year so far. Kahne and Stewart are similar. They both warm up after the World 600 with a rare springtime win.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: Back up one more year and it will also be two tracks ago. The high banks came down in '07. WHOA! Bristol is not one of Junior's strong tracks? What're you smokin' boy? Junior has a very good record at Bristol. Drives it just like his Daddy taught him.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: I am not on anything. When I think back on the recent winners at this track, 2008 to present, his name is not amount them. I could say that about any track not Michigan or Daytona as well. He has a fire under him this year that I have not seen in him since 2004. It's nice to see him competitive again. I have to ask aloud has Earnhardt Jr. considered running the Indy 500? To be honest I would love to see him try the double some year. I was reading on the IndyCar website how many NASCAR drivers ran both before the races were on the same day. Just a thought.
JIM FITZGERALD: My take on the double is that the only guy that should be trying the double, at least from the NASCAR side, is Jimmie Johnson. I think only a driver who has mastered his own series, and he has for the most part, should take part in another with a completely different type of race car.
PATTYKAY LILLEY: My thought on the double is that IndyCar worked hard to kill it for everyone. Used to be, Charlotte ran on the last Sunday in May and Indy ran on May 30, the traditional Memorial Day before all Holidays had to be tied to a Monday for "convenience" sake. When Indy moved to Sunday, Charlotte moved to a later time. Indy then changed its starting time from 11:00 in the morning to Noon. Charlotte moved a bit later another time and then Indy changed Captains on that sinking ship... again. NOW, they want to pay a cool Million to anyone that can win both, I believe is the offer on the table. Here's a free tip... that's not gonna happen... ever. If Indy went back to either May 30 or the Monday of what is now Memorial Day Weekend, there are several from both venues that could reasonably do the double. I guess though, it would lose the TV appeal if they couldn't film mad dashes to and from helicopters that conveniently arrive just in the knick of time... every time. quite frankly, it's a big ho-hum and nothing to get excited about in the least. It's a made for TV movie.
JIM FITZGERALD: Speaking of movies, did you ever see Rookie Of The Year, where the little kid pitches for the Chicago(land) Cubs? In baseball, the sign in the score book for a strike out is a “K.” In terms of numbers, the K means “thousands.” At Bristol, it could mean Kahne, Kenseth, Kurt, Kyle, or Keselowski. In fact, eight of the last races at Bristol were won by a driver whose first or last name began with a “K.” So, what does that mean for this week? Not a thing. What does matter is recent history, which puts me in a conflicted spot as well. Kasey Kahne tore it up here last year with a second place finish and a win. You can’t get much better than that unless you win them both. However, Kasey seems to have the Bad Luck Beaver chomping at him a bit these days. Still, the only way to break bad racing luck is to make your own good racing luck, and that’s what I’m counting on, so for me, it is Kasey Kahne at Bristol. Now, will I get the K for Thousands, as in dollars for a win, or will I get the K for Strike Out, and take another seat towards the back of the standings?
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Kasey Kahne is a 50/50 pick. Sometimes he does well, and sometimes he wrecks.
BRIAN MARCHETTI: It’s a bit odd to me that nobody has mentioned Matt Kenseth, and he won here last year.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Is that your pick, Brian?
BRIAN MARCHETTI: if we back up several years, when we would talk about Bristol, we would talk about Rusty Wallace and eventually Kurt Busch, both in the Blue Deuce. I met Brad back in January at the Motorsports 2014 Show in Philadelphia, and he just didn't impress me enough to follow in that tradition. His 30, 3, 30, 1, 1 finishes in the last 5 races here should make me consider him, but his personality made it too personal for me to give him the benefit.
ALABAMA FITZ: Making a pick today?
BRIAN MARCHETTI: I like Jeff Gordon's Driver Rating, only .6 pts off of the top spot, but his Finish record was a surprise to me. I've always looked a Gordon as a "rubbin" driver, knowing how to trade paint and stay on the short track. But his last 5 races at Bristol resulted in a 7, 34, 3, 35, and 3 finish. Not impressive enough to jump on the Rainbow Warrior ride this week....still hunting for my pick.
KEVIN ABRAHAM: Last spring Gordon and Kenseth were one and two when Gordon blew a tire and took both of them out, and Jim’s pick this week, Kasey Kahne, won. Now, Marchetti, stop stalling!
BRIAN MARCHETTI: Okay. Kyle Busch has the Top Driver Rating this week with 101.8, and the Best Driver Average in the last 10 Races of 7.8. I know, PattyKay, we don't look at the last 10, but concentrate on the last 5. So, an 11, 2, 6, 32, and 14 finishes don't really impress me, but I like the guy everybody loves to hate. He's due for a Top 10, and maybe even a Win. It follows my tradition to go with the guy who has the best numbers, so I'm going with Shrub this week. I will add one note, if we were playing Yahoo with limited picks per driver, I'd look real hard at Brian Vickers. I like him on this track. His last 4 races at Bristol were Top 10's, and Kevin, had Gordon finished with a Top 5 at the last race, the pattern would show he's due to fail this week......I'm sticking with the Candy Man, and you can even eat the dishes!
KEVIN ABRAHAM: So the M&M stock dividend came in this week…Robyn?
ROBYN VANDENBERG: Ahhhh Bristol…my favorite track of them all. Where boys and girls have to step up their game and wear their Big Boy/Girl pants or they get stuck wearing the Huggies pull ups. Bristol used to be the place where if you qualified terribly chances were you would end the race just as terribly. Not the case anymore. If you have the drive and the stamina you can go from 37th to the top ten within 10-12 laps…ask Kyle Busch. My pick for this week is none other than Martin Truex, Jr. He thrives on this track and if he can stay out of trouble, he could see Victory Lane!
JIM FITZGERALD: That's an interesting pick, Robyn. It is possible that Kurt Busch told those Furniture Row cats how to make a car work at Bristol as he scored a top five there in the spring last year. Truex had a few good hot runs there as well, four top twelve finishes in the last five races, and two of them were a second and a third. We'll see how that all translates when they get on the track.
ALABAMA FITZ: You people are thinking this week!! I agree with you Kevin, as to your reasoning on the 88 car, but only to a point. PattyKay is right that this is one of his better tracks, but not for wins. Bristol is a survivor track and Dale Jr. is a survivor here with 50% of his runs ending in a TOP 10, but I just didn't get the feeling. He is a hot runner right now and this could result in win # 2 both for the year and at this track.
Talk about a hot driver! The Keselowski Express is up and running. A win last week, and using PattyKay's format, you almost can't say no to the #2 car here in Bristol. If Brad continues to run Bristol as he has, we might as well rename the track right now and be done with it. He is a good solid pick here.
JIM FITZGERALD: Taking Brad?
ALABAMA FITZ: Not even close. I see where Brad's teammate has also been chosen this week. Is Joey Logano another driver, which, after switching from Toyota to Ford, and from Gibbs to Penske, will run better at certain tracks? Remember, Brad also switched last year and immediately started running much better at Vegas, and look what happened this year! Joey improved significantly at Bristol last year in his first year in a Ford. Will it carry over? This will be interesting.... Kevin and PattyKay, you certainly could have the daily double here. I'm picking Logano as my dark horse, but not as my winner.
JIM FITZGERALD: Who is your winner?
ALABAMA FITZ: I’m getting there. Robyn, what do you know that we don't? Martin Truex is, in my book, a gutsy call. Out of a total of 16 races, only 4 Top 10s...truly some scary numbers to be picking a winner on. This could be his breakthrough here and if it is, could I rent your crystal ball?
ROBYN VANDENBERG: Mimicking my pick?
ALABAMA FITZ: Nope. Jim, if you used PattyKay's formula, she can hardly deny your choice of Kahne. When I saw you had chosen Kahne, I really thought you had lost a lug nut! Then I looked up his record. Last three race results at Bristol were a 9th, a win and a second, in that order. If he continues on the swing, you get K as in thousands of dollars. I hadn't even thought of him.
JIM FITZGERALD: So I guess he’s not your pick either?
ALABAMA FITZ: Again, no. Brian, you have what I think is as good a selection as any of the others. Kyle and the #18 have a pretty good record here. His Start/Finish ratio is an astonishing 19.6/9.9! His last three at Bristol are 6th, 2nd, and 11th. The 11th isn't so spectacular...until you remember he started 43rd! Good choice I think. I also looked at the 24, the 48, the 16, the 99, and while most of them had decent numbers, they just didn't ring my bell. So my choice came down to two...Kenseth or Kyle. Kenseth won here last year here and has 18 Top 10's out of 28 races but also has 4 DNFs. Kyle has 12 Top 10's out of 18 races and has no DNFs. PattyKay, I used your formula and it didn't really help me make the decision. I had to shorten your formula. It came down to a one race choice...the last one here. A win vs. an 11th from 43rd. I went with Kyle Busch, the guy I think has driven harder, has lasted longer and has done more in less time. I also think Kyle has a "Bristol kind of attitude". Ok Brian, we finished 5th last week, who's driving this week?
BRIAN MARCHETTI: The Candy Man can!
JIM FITZGERALD: And considering people who “can,” let’s get to our fan picks for this week’s race at Bristol. Vivian is on a two week winning streak and will get us started…
Fan Picks:
Vivian: Well, this was a tough one but I finally narrowed it down to one team and racer. Bristol is a track where drivers have to race hard. My pick is not only one of the hardest racing drivers but also one of the most aggressive in Cup. He has won here before and will do so again. When the checkers fly, Kyle Busch will be the one to go to Victory Lane.
Nate: I have a feeling that at Bristol, it is time for old “Six Time” to throw his hat in the ring to become the next 7-time Cup Champion. Jimmie Johnson takes the win at Bristol, and secures a Chase spot in the process.
Barbara: Winning Bristol is more a race of survival - Who can keep their vehicle in the best running condition. Or, who can drive the most beat-up car - to which I am raising the flag for Rowdy this week. I think Kyle Busch will fight the hardest to get the #18 up front and maintain his position.
Darrell: I don’t have any number crunching, any reports I’ve run, or any stats to show. All I have is a gut feeling this week, and it is telling me to go with the No. 4 of Kevin Harvick.
Jim Fitzgerald: Well fans, there you have it. It is leaning heavily toward Kyle Busch this weekend, so we’ll see if the Candy Man truly can. We’ll see how all of that works out, as well as who Mr. Pole and Mr. Seven end up with at Bristol. Until then, good luck, best wishes, and keep the shiny side up.
“I grew up in east Tennessee, and everybody knew everybody’s business. –Kenny Chesney
Our Picks For This Week!
Kevin Abraham |
Brian Marchetti |
Alabama Fitz |
Who is YOUR pick to win this week?