2014 Season Preview ~ Part 4: From Allgaier To Edwards
Welcome back to our 2014 Season Preview! This is part four, and we’re going cover Martin Truex, Jr, Carl Edwards, and yes, Dale Earnhardt, Jr!
(Unless otherwise specified, all car images are courtesy of Jayski)
No. 51 – Justin Allgaier (PattyKay Lilley)
Though this team retains the name Phoenix Racing, ownership of the team changed last September, from long-time owner James Finch to Harry Scott, one-half of Turner-Scott Motorsports. That team provided the training ground in Nationwide for Kyle Larson, now the newest driver on the Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates team, and this year will field Ben Kennedy, son of Lesa France Kennedy in the Nationwide series. Scott's newest endeavor, this well-known #51 in the Cup series, welcomes Justin Allgaier as the very recently announced driver, with Steve Addington, most recently of the #14 team at Stewart-Haas Racing, as crew chief. Engines for this team have come from Hendrick Motorsports, and I've heard of no change in that status.
The primary sponsor, on the hood for 21 races in 2014, is Brandt, an agriculture retailer and manufacturer of agricultural specialty products. Filling out the remaining 15 races will be sponsorship from agriculture-related sponsors including the National FFA(Future Farmers of America), TradeMark Nitrogen, Nutrients for Life Foundation, Precision Tank and Grigg Brothers. (Specialty fertilizers) If you are sensing a theme here, you are correct. This will be the only completely ag-related team in NASCAR. Viva the Farmers!
The 27-year old Allgaier will toss his hat into the ring with many others to run for 2014 Rookie of the Year honors. This will be the largest and most talented bunch of drivers to enter the ROTY contest in many, many years. Best wishes and good luck to all of them. It should be a battle well worth watching!
No. 55 - Brian Vickers (Jim Fitzgerald)
After proving to everyone last season that he deserved to be back in a full time ride by winning at New Hampshire, Vickers’ elevator career when plummeting back down to the sub-basement once again after he was diagnosed with blood clots for the second time. Now on the mend, Vickers will pick up the helmet again and take the wheel of the No. 55 full time after Mark Martin vacated the seat in favor of a career with Stewart-Haas Racing. Vickers is going to have to prove that that win was not a fluke and that those great runs he had in a limited number of races for the past two years will have companions. Otherwise, he’ll once again be the guy who tried hard only when his job was on the line. If Vickers does get a win this year, it will probably come at Richmond, or Martinsville, maybe Bristol or he could back up New Hampshire with another win there. I’m not completely sold on this as his health has to be a concern from now on, so you never know if he’ll be able to run the entire season. Calling the shots atop the pit box is Billy Scott. Rodney Childers also went to SHR, so there may be a gap left behind by a very good crew chief. Other than that the team is essentially unchanged from a year ago. I’ll give them a win, 5 top-fives, eleven top-tens, and a Chase spot, based on that win. No. 77- Dave Blaney (Kevin Abraham) |
Blaney found himself as the odd man out when Tommy Baldwin Racing chose to not to keep him after the 2013 season. Blaney finds himself with the Randy Humphrey team that struggled to qualify for races in 2013, and was mainly a start and park team when they did qualify for races. The only highlight for this team is that they acquired a number of Fords from Germain Racing, and Blaney's old number from his Jasper Racing days. The prediction for 2014 is bleak for Dave Blaney. Even with the acquisition of Germain Racing Fords to the stable, look for this team to be a start and park team, and for Blaney to not be with the team at the end of 2014. No Chase and no top-tens. Watch for Blaney to compete more in sprint cars (the winged cars), and focus on being there for his son Ryan as he continues to climb the NASCAR ladder with Team Penske.
No. 78- Martin Truex, Jr. (Alabama Fitz)
Is Martin is starting all over? I guess you could say yes, but then again, not totally. He has a new team owner, a new sponsor and a new car, but if reports are correct, his entire pit crew, which underwent constant change throughout 2013, will go with him. As a quick recap, he has been in Sprint full time since 2006. He has 2 wins: 2007, in June at Dover, where he started 26th (which in itself is an accomplishment from that far back at Dover!) and then Sonoma last year, (another accomplishment) where he started 14th. He now has a two year driving contract (per Joe Garone, Furniture Row Racing General Manager), which should take some weight off of his shoulders. He will however, be switching from Toyota to Chevy, so it will take a little while to learn the nuances of a different car, but that's what practice is for. He will be getting engines and engine tech support from Richard Childress Racing, another bright spot. Sponsorship is seemingly set with Denver Mattress Co. (Serta, Sealy, and Beautyrest) as primary sponsors. So, at the very least, he ought to sleep well, eh? Okay, that covers past and current. Now for the future. Conservatively speaking, Martin can, with some smart driving and some smart pit decisions, win at least once, maybe twice. I think three wins, while not impossible, is a tall order. Coupled with his one or two wins, there should be some good finishes in the Top 10, which should net him a seat in the Chase.
No. 83- Ryan Truex (Jim Fitzgerald)
Ryan Truex will run for Rookie of the Year honors in one of the largest rookie classes in recent memory. This year’s class could rival that of 1994 when drivers such as Jeff and Ward Burton, along with Joe Nemechek and Mike Wallace make their runs. There is a lot of talent out there in this rookie class, and Truex may already be behind as he will face drivers such as Austin Dillon, driving for Richard Childress, and Kyle Larson who filled the seat for Chip Ganassi when Juan Pablo Montoya exited the NASCAR scene. While Truex may not be in the same level of equipment as some of his rivals, his talent is certainly a mark to be measured. I watched this kid make a start in the Nationwide Series at Dover in 2012. He sat on the pole, led a good portion of the race, and then finished second to Joey Logano when a lapped car became an obstruction. Now, with three cup starts under his belt, he hits the big time, full time. I’m looking for Truex to over achieve in this car. He’ll take a 30th place car and finish 25th or better with it. He’ll take a 15th place car and finish in or near the top ten. At the end of it all, I look for two top-five finishes and five top-tens, but no wins, and therefore no Chase. He’ll finish third or fourth in the Rookie battle, behind Dillon and Larson.
No. 87- Joe Nemechek (PattyKay Lilley)
This team is NEMCO Motorsports, usually... unless it can find sponsorship. Then it morphs into whoever's name is putting up some funding for that week. Driver Joe Nemechek is 49 years old and been driving in the Cup ranks for 21 of those years. With 651 races run, Joe has won 4 of them, at Rockingham, Loudon, Richmond and the last coming at Kansas in 2004. He is the poster boy for the term, "Journeyman driver." As his age went upwards the quality of the rides offered went downhill, and so too did sponsorship, until Joe was without a ride and formed his own team. The team had little or no sponsorship and has been maintained mostly as a start and park operation. The team fields Toyotas, with Scott Eggleston doing crew chief duties and engines are provided by Race Engines Plus.
I really wish I hadn't gotten this team to preview because Joe is a nice guy; one of those very well liked in the garage area, by everyone but the sponsors. What you see is what you get here... a 49-year-old driver with a low budget car, probably running "previously enjoyed" parts, and decidedly not competitive. So why does a team exist only to start and park? Well, consider that last year, Joe made 35 of the 36 races run and had an average finish of 36.2. His winnings for that less than wonderful season were $2,764,078. Yes, gentle readers, parking pays pretty well these days. My prediction for this team in 2014 is more of the same. Who, in his right mind, would give up something as lucrative as that? No top anythings for this team, except perhaps at the pay window. (Do they still have pay windows?)
No. 88- Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (PattyKay Lilley)
This team of course, needs no introduction. This is JuneBug, the Bud Stud, the Heir Apparent, eleven years Most Popular Driver... this is Dale Earnhardt Jr. In reality, this is the second oldest team in the Hendrick Stable and at one time bore the number 25, and the name on the door read Tim Richmond. After Richmond passed away from complications from AIDS, garage rumor had it that this car carried a curse. Really? Well, the #25 itself has only 21 wins at Cup level to its credit from the dawn of time 'til now and 9 of those belong to Tim Richmond. Following his death, Kenny Schrader scored 3 wins for that number, and Jerry Nadeau, Joe Nemechek, Brian Vickers and Casey Mears can claim one each, all for Hendrick Motorsports.
Current driver, Dale Jr., has 19 wins in his 15-year Cup career. Only two came while driving the Hendrick #88, both at Michigan and four years apart. I'm not saying it's cursed, but this team and driver have not lived up to the hype and expectations once held for them. Rather sad, as it only served to increase the pressure on a man already living under a huge shadow, that of his late father, Dale Earnhardt Sr. Currently, the crew chief here is Steve Letarte. Of course, they run Hendrick engines in their Chevrolets and primary sponsors for 2014 will be Army National Guard for 20 races, Diet Mountain Dew/AMP Energy for 5 races and the possibility of Time Warner being on the hood for an unknown number of races. However, I don't see sponsorship as becoming a problem here. If this team can't secure sponsorship, none of them can. One big fly in the ointment here is that crew chief Letarte has let it be known he will be leaving the team after this year to take a job with NBC Broadcasting when that network takes over the final 20 races of 2015.
Predictions for 2014? This is a good team, with a good driver and a crew chief that gets along well with the driver. They "should" score a win and probably two. However, they "should" have been doing that right along, and they have not. I'll give them one win, with fingers crossed. No, I don't believe in curses, but this car simply does not win a lot of races. That's a fact Jack!
No. 23(Was No. 93)- Alex Bowman (Kevin Abraham)
Bowman is promoted to the Sprint Cup series after running for Rookie of the Year in 2013 in the Nationwide Series. His stats were two top-fives and six top-tens, and an eleventh place finish in the points. Bowman is driving for BK racing, which is known more for their overcooked engines (and Whoppers) than competing for top-tens. In the most talented rookie class we have seen in the last decade, do not look for Bowman to even finish in the top five in the rookie field in 2014. Bowman is too inexperienced to make a big splash in Sprint Cup, and do not be surprised to see him finish outside the top thirty in Sprint Cup points. No Chase, and no top-tens unless the team gets one on a restrictor plate track. (1 for 145 in the top-ten category for this team since it was formed in 2012, and that was with former driver Travis Kvapil at Talladega 2012)
No. 98- Josh Wise (Kevin Abraham)
Wise finds himself at Phil Parsons racing after driving the third car for Front Row Motorsports in the last two seasons. Looking at Wise's stats and Phil Parsons Racing's stats in 2013, this actually was a step down for Wise, as PPR was the king of starting and parking in 2013, with only six finished races in thirty-three attempts, where Wise finished about half the races in 2013. In two of the six races PPR finished, they finished in the top fifteen, which shows that the team does have some promise if they can obtain a sponsor. The team did announce a switch from Ford to Chevy, but the team has yet to announce a sponsor for 2014. Look for the No. 98 to be leading the LASTCAR standings at the end of 2014, even with the switch from Ford to Chevy. No Chase. No wins, maybe a top ten a Daytona or 'Dega.
No. 99- Carl Edwards (Alabama Fitz)
Carl isn't going anywhere, except up, hopefully. He certainly SEEMS to have more talent than
he has exhibited lately. He has a
multi-year contract which he signed in 2012, and since Roush/Fenway Racing
tends to do three to four year contracts, it could run through 2015 or
2016. Some of his sponsors are leaving (Geek
Squad) while others are staying (Fastenal and Aflac). UPS, which says it will not return after
2014, has only signed on for one race. Associate
sponsors Kellogg’s and Subway, remain unknown at this time. Jimmy Fennig will return as Crew Chief. As for 2013, with 2 wins, 9 Top 5s, 16 Top
10s and 2 poles, it was a decent year, but he had a terrible Chase, finishing
13th in points. He won the 2nd race of
the season at Phoenix, and I for one, thought he was back. But then he didn't win again until September
in Richmond. Here's an odd fact: in
2013, only four drivers led more laps than Carl: Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth,
Kyle Busch, and Kasey Kahne!! I actually
read that three times. Kasey had over
600 laps led to Carl's 524. Here's
another: He has more wins in Nationwide
(38 in 7 years) than he does in Sprint (21 in 10 years). Almost twice as many in
three fewer years. So what's
going on here? Has he become
complacent? Is he playing it safe...
maybe too safe? I doubt that, but it had
to be said. Could it be Jimmy
Fennig? I keep thinking back to Fennig’s time with Mark Martin, but I also remember Mark
had other crew chiefs. Could I have been
overrating him all this time, expecting too much? So where is he going in 2014? Good question, but like I said, hopefully
up. I would like to see him return to
his 2011 form when he finished 2nd in the points. If he does, "Mr. Backflip" will be
back. Just a little more of what seems
to have waned the last couple of years, and he could have three, maybe four
wins and a serious shot at the title. If
not, maybe two wins and a slot in the Chase, but not a Championship....unless
he returns to 2011 form.
A little extra: Some know this, some don't, but "racecar" spelled backwards is: racecar!
That does it for part 4 of the preview for 2014. We hope you enjoyed our predictions and recaps of changed made. Next week, we’ll comer some of the part time teams you’ll see at various points throughout the year, such as Michael Waltrip, Bobby Labonte, and Jeff Burton.